Possible number of humans

Possible number of humans

Think yourself as a numbered ball. You are a human who knows approximately what your birth number is – and it’s probably somewhere around 100 billion. That’s how many other humans were most likely born before you were. And you didn’t decide to get that number, it is “random” in nature. So, just like the number for a ball, you are a random sample from the set of all humans who will ever live.

The “doomsday argument” points out that from 200 billion people, there’s 50% chance that a randomly chosen person like you will be born in the first one hundred billion.

If there will be, let’s say, 10 trillion humans, that probability would be only 1% (the chance of any given human, like you, would happen to be born within the first one hundred billion).

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