Urn and balls

Urn and balls

Imagine a giant urn that contains either 10 balls (numbered 1 to 10), or a million balls (numbered 1 to 1,000,000). You don’t know which is the case. And you are allowed to pull out one ball.

You pull out the ball and it is the bull having number 4 on it. Which one is more likely, there are 10 balls, or a million balls in the urn?

The answer is obvious. It is very, very likely that there are 10 balls in the urn.

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